Eric Corey Freed, who will be speaking at the Green Cities Florida Conference in May, interviews some of the biggest names in green building for Natural Home Magazine.

——————

To mark Natural Home’s 10th anniversary, we asked a visionary group of architects and educators to predict what will happen to housing over the next decade. The insights they share are surprisingly full of optimism, creativity and hope.

Our Panelists:

Gil Friend, President and Chief Executive Officer, Natural Logic

Pliny Fisk, Fellow, Center for Housing and Urban Development; Fellow, Sustainable Urbanism Center for Healthy Systems Design; Co-director, Center for Maximum Potential Building Systems

Sarah Susanka, Architect and best-selling author, The Not So Big House series (The Taunton Press)

David W. Orr, Paul Sears Distinguished Professor of Environmental Studies and Politics and Senior Adviser to the President, Oberlin College; Author of five books, including Design on the Edge: The Making of a High-Performance Building (The MIT Press, 2006)

Michelle Kaufmann, Founder and Chairman, Michelle Kaufmann Designs; Author, PreFab Green (Gibbs Smith, 2009)

Sergio Palleroni, Professor and Fellow, Center for Sustainable Processes and Practices, Portland State University; Author, Studio at Large: Architecture in Service of Global Communities (University of Washington Press, 2004)

NH: How do you think housing will change in the next 10 years?

DAVID ORR: There are going to be two major revolutions in the next 10 years. One is that the quality of construction is going to change because of rising fuel costs and an influx of better technology for housing. Building a net-zero house is now a reality.

The second thing is the layout and design of communities. Fuel costs are going to drive people back into inner city areas, and I think suburban sprawl will be a thing of the past. We’re seeing that now.

SARAH SUSANKA:  I think that the biggest changes we’re going to see are that what we now call “green” or “sustainable” design will automatically be part of the mix. Putting in a good furnace or additional insulation is just going to be one of the basics. One of the things driving that is the public catching on that it makes a big difference to how big their utility bills are. But I think it’s just going to become completely normal.

From my perspective, good design is going to be fundamental. In my mind, good design comes with smaller and better designed. Tailored rather than lots of space without much definition. All of the things we’re seeing in computer-aided design that allows people to have a sense of what a house is going to look like before it’s done will give people better tools for assessing what makes sense.

Beauty matters. Beauty is one of the most sustainable things you can do. People are gradually realizing that if something is beautiful and it inspires them, they and future generations are going to look after it. The mindset of looking into the future and realizing that what we build today needs to last for the long haul is really starting to sink in.

SERGIO PALLERONI: I think housing is going to get more regionalized. Too much of housing is driven by prototypes that are supposed to apply nationwide. Increasingly, sustainability is driving us to understand local issues and opportunities, both in how buildings perform and with changing economics. Consider regional materials. So I think we’re going to get a greater diversity in housing than anything else.

We’re also going to get more influence from across borders. You’re already seeing that in the way the publications are going. Housing in America has always been influenced by America itself, but you’re going to see more influence from Europe and looking at what other people are doing. We’re getting more serious about looking at other examples because of a sharing of issues.  We need potential models for these economics, energy and resource issues.

GIL FRIEND: Housing size will probably shrink, and housing will get more efficient. There’s going to be significant growth in energy-efficient, water-efficient and resource-efficient housing –the markets are going to demand it. We’re already seeing a call for zero net energy footprint homes, and even zero net water homes.

One of the really potentially interesting things happening now is a growth in thinking about how buildings are living systems. And not just as boxes plopped on the landscape, but as living systems participating in living systems. Housing not just to zero out its’ impact, but see housing as regenerative element on the landscape. A net producer of value: energy, water, food and enjoying well being.

MICHELLE KAUFMANN: Over the past 15 to 20 years, so many people have been thinking about homes as quick investments, with two-year flips. People have been buying homes, doing the quick remodel (mainly with the priorities of low cost materials that will look good for open house day), and then selling them. We have almost been thinking of homes as disposable. Those days are over (and thank goodness for that!)

People are now thinking about homes as long-term dwellings. This inherently leads to more sustainable choices that are based on long-term costs versus upfront costs, choosing materials and systems that are long-lasting, timeless in beauty, and smart in design. We are going to start thinking and talking about the cost of homes in a more real way—which for most people is about their monthly bills rather than upfront sticker cost.

Because, for most people who don’t pay cash upfront, it is about the monthly bills: monthly mortgage and monthly water and energy bills. Once we start thinking and talking about costs in that very real way, sustainable green homes are seen as costing less, and we start making smarter choices. I think this is really exciting.

[ Read entire article ]